The Tiered Progression Model: Why Recovery Housing's Future Looks Like Aurora's New Campus

A $40 million facility just opened with a radical idea: reward progress, not just provide beds. Here's why this model matters for your recovery housing operation.

If you've been following recovery housing trends, you've probably noticed a major shift happening across the country. Cities and states are moving away from "no strings attached" housing models toward something more structured—programs that incentivize progress, require accountability, and measure success by how many people achieve independence, not just how many beds are filled.

The clearest example of this shift just opened its doors in Aurora, Colorado. On November 17, 2025, the Aurora Regional Navigation Campus welcomed its first 176 residents into a 600-bed facility that operates on what officials call a "tiered progression model." It's not Housing First. It's not Work First. It's something in between—and it's attracting national attention as a potential blueprint for recovery housing's future.

Here's why this model matters, what the data says about tiered approaches, and how you can adapt these principles for your own operation.

What Is the Tiered Progression Model?

The tiered progression model creates multiple levels of housing within a single program, with each tier offering better accommodations and more independence as residents demonstrate progress toward self-sufficiency. Think of it as a game with levels—but the stakes are real, and the reward is lasting recovery.

Aurora's campus divides residents into three distinct tiers:

Tier 1: Compassion (285 beds)

What it is: Low-barrier emergency shelter

Requirements: None. No sobriety requirements, no work requirements

Accommodations: Army-style cots in large open rooms with lockers and basic storage

Services: Basic needs met—food, shelter, safety

Philosophy: "Just show up." Meet people where they are

Tier 2: Courage (114 beds)

What it is: Semi-private transitional housing with case management

Requirements: Agree to work with case managers and peer coaches

Accommodations: Pod-style living with walls on three sides, private bed, better storage

Services: Active case management, goal-setting, barrier identification, skills training

Philosophy: "It takes courage to face what's holding you back"

Tier 3: Commitment (220 rooms)

What it is: Independent hotel-style rooms for working residents

Requirements: Full-time employment, sobriety maintained, contribute 30% of income (~$1,000/month)

Accommodations: Private hotel rooms with bathroom, 1-2 beds, up to 2-year stays

Services: Continued access to support services, workforce development, permanent housing navigation

Philosophy: "Commitment to long-term independence"

The magic is in the progression. Residents can see their peers moving up, which creates natural motivation. Staff can point to success stories happening in the same building. And the facility doesn't have to choose between being low-barrier or recovery-focused—it's both.

The Data Behind Tiered Models

While Aurora's campus is brand new, the tiered approach to recovery housing isn't. Research supports what Aurora is betting on: structured progression with clear incentives produces better outcomes than either extreme.

What Research Shows About Recovery Housing Tiers

Positive outcomes across the board: Studies of recovery housing consistently show improvements in:

• Decreased substance use and reduced likelihood of return to use
• Lower rates of incarceration
• Higher income and increased employment
• Improved family relationships and housing stability

Engagement matters more than mandates: Research from 300 individuals in sober living houses over 18 months showed significant improvements in alcohol/drug use, psychiatric symptoms, employment, and arrests—regardless of whether residents were mandated to participate or self-selected.

Peer environment drives outcomes: Higher scores on the Recovery House Environment Scale (measuring social model principles) are positively associated with length of stay and negatively associated with substance use days. The social environment—seeing peers succeed—matters enormously.

Work and structure improve retention: While Housing First models show 62% housed after two years, programs incorporating work requirements and structured support show retention rates as high as 98% when properly designed.

What We Know About Each Tier Level

Low-barrier entry (Tier 1) is essential: Studies show that removing barriers to entry gets people off the streets quickly. Aurora's Tier 1 had 176 people on opening night—people who might have refused a program with upfront requirements.

Case management (Tier 2) drives transition: Research consistently shows that ongoing case management—not just housing—is what helps people address the barriers keeping them homeless or in active addiction. The "courage" to engage with services is where real change begins.

Work and contribution (Tier 3) build self-efficacy: Programs requiring work participation and financial contribution (like Aurora's 30% income requirement) show higher rates of transition to permanent housing. Contributing creates ownership and builds confidence.

Why This Model Works (And Why Others Fail)

Aurora Mayor Mike Coffman spent a week living undercover as "Homeless Mike" to understand why people stay on the streets. His conclusion: Neither Housing First nor Work First alone works for everyone.

The Housing First Problem

Housing First—providing permanent housing with no requirements—has dominated federal policy for years. The theory: stable housing makes recovery possible.

The results speak for themselves:

• San Francisco: $30 billion invested, 31% increase in homelessness
• California statewide: Average stay in "transitional" housing is 8 years
• High overdose rates in low-barrier supportive housing units

Housing First works for some, particularly those with severe mental illness who are stable in sobriety. But for active addiction, removing all accountability often enables continued substance use.

The Work First Problem

Work First—requiring employment and sobriety upfront—works great for people ready to change. But it screens out the very people who need help most: those in active addiction, those with untreated mental health issues, those without recent work history.

Work First gets great outcomes for a small group while leaving everyone else on the streets.

The Tiered Solution

The tiered model says: "We'll meet you where you are, but we won't leave you there."

• Immediate access for those in crisis (Tier 1)
• Graduated expectations as residents stabilize (Tier 2)
• Real accountability for those ready for independence (Tier 3)

It's the Goldilocks approach—not too restrictive, not too permissive, just right.

How to Implement Tiered Progression in Your Recovery Housing

You don't need a $40 million facility to adopt tiered progression principles. Here's how to adapt this model to your operation:

For Small Operators (1-3 Houses)

Create progression within your existing structure:

Entry Level - First 30-60 days

• Shared rooms, basic amenities
• Daily or weekly check-ins
• Required house meetings and chores
• Focus on stabilization and engagement

Progress Level - After demonstrated stability

• Semi-private rooms or single rooms
• Bi-weekly check-ins
• Active treatment/employment/school requirement
• Leadership opportunities (house manager roles)

Independence Level - Final 3-6 months

• Best rooms or separate wing
• Monthly check-ins only
• Working or in school full-time
• Savings requirement or permanent housing planning
• Mentoring newer residents

Key implementation tips:

• Make tier progression visible and celebrated
• Create clear criteria for advancement (e.g., 30 days clean time, job obtained, savings reached)
• Allow residents to move between tiers if circumstances change
• Use peer pressure positively—room assignments matter

For Medium Operators (4-10 Houses)

Create distinct houses for different tiers:

Stabilization House (Tier 1)

• Entry point for all new residents
• Higher staff ratios (1:10 residents)
• Daily programming required
• 30-90 day maximum stays

Transition Houses (Tier 2)

• For residents meeting stability benchmarks
• Case management focused on employment/education
• Some financial contribution required
• 3-12 month typical stays

Independence Houses (Tier 3)

• Market-rate or subsidized apartments
• Minimal supervision, maximum autonomy
• Full financial contribution
• 6-24 month stays with permanent housing planning

Key implementation tips:

• Physical separation between houses reinforces tier distinctions
• Create ceremonies for residents graduating between houses
• Allow peer leaders from Tier 3 to mentor Tier 1/2 residents
• Use outcomes data to show funders the progression model's effectiveness

For Large Operators (Campus or Multi-Location)

Build comprehensive tier infrastructure:

Campus Design

• Separate wings or buildings for each tier
• Shared common spaces that mix tier populations
• Progressive amenity access (gym, computer lab, recreation)
• Visual markers showing tier progression path

Staffing Model

• Tier 1: High-touch crisis intervention staff
• Tier 2: Case managers and peer coaches
• Tier 3: Employment specialists and housing navigators
• Cross-tier coordination through centralized management

Financial Structure

• Tier 1: Fully subsidized or nominal fees
• Tier 2: Graduated fees based on income ($100-300/month)
• Tier 3: Market-rate or cost-sharing (~30% of income)
• Scholarship fund for hardship cases

Key implementation tips:

• Create data dashboards showing tier distribution and flow
• Establish quality metrics for each tier (e.g., Tier 1 to Tier 2 conversion rate)
• Build partnerships for tier-specific services (job training, mental health, transportation)
• Market tier progression in referral relationships and funding applications

Critical Metrics for Tiered Models

The difference between a tiered model that succeeds and one that fails is measurement. Here's what to track:

Advancement Metrics

Tier 1 → Tier 2 conversion rate

• Target: 40-60% within 90 days
• Indicates effectiveness of engagement efforts
• Low conversion suggests need for better case management

Tier 2 → Tier 3 advancement rate

• Target: 50-70% within 6 months
• Measures success of employment/skills programs
• High rates validate your stabilization approach

Time to advancement

• Average days in each tier before progression
• Identifies bottlenecks (e.g., 6-month wait for jobs)
• Helps predict capacity needs

Completion Metrics

Tier 3 completion rate

• Target: 60-80% successful transition to permanent housing
• The ultimate measure of program success
• Compare against local housing market conditions

Overall program completion

• Percentage who enter Tier 1 and exit from Tier 3 successfully
• Realistic target: 20-35% given attrition at early stages
• Track reasons for non-completion at each tier

Post-program stability

• 6-month and 12-month housing retention after program exit
• Employment retention post-program
• Sobriety maintenance rates
• These are your outcomes gold standard

Operational Metrics

Length of stay by tier

• Median and mean days in each tier
• Compare against program design (e.g., Tier 1 should be 30-60 days)
• Long stays in early tiers suggest progression barriers

Occupancy by tier

• Percentage of beds filled in each tier
• Identifies tier imbalances (e.g., Tier 1 always full, Tier 3 empty)
• Guides capacity planning and redesign

Regression rates

• Percentage who move backward between tiers
• Analyze reasons (relapse, job loss, behavioral issues)
• Acceptable rate: 10-20% (recovery isn't linear)

Financial Metrics

Revenue by tier

• Track contribution/fees collected at each level
• Tier 3 should approach cost-neutral or revenue-positive
• Calculate subsidy needed per resident by tier

Cost per progression

• Total program costs divided by number reaching Tier 3
• Helps demonstrate ROI to funders
• Compare to alternative intervention costs

Technology Requirements for Tiered Models

Managing a tiered progression model manually is nearly impossible at scale. You need systems that support:

Essential Features

1. Tier assignment and tracking

• Quick visual identification of resident tier status
• Historical tier progression records
• Visual dashboards showing distribution

2. Goal tracking by tier

• Tier-specific benchmarks
• Progress toward advancement criteria
• Automated alerts when criteria are met
• Case manager task management

3. Financial tracking by tier

• Tier-specific fee structures
• Contribution tracking for Tier 3
• Cost allocation by tier
• Revenue projections

4. Outcomes tracking

• Length of stay by tier
• Advancement rates
• Employment/sobriety metrics
• Post-program follow-up
• Comparative analytics

5. Compliance documentation

• Drug testing by tier requirements
• Case management notes
• Service utilization
• Incident tracking

Why Spreadsheets Won't Cut It

You might think you can track tiered progression in Excel. You can't—not effectively. Here's why:

• Multiple staff need simultaneous access to update residents' progress
• Real-time reporting is critical for capacity management
• Automated alerts prevent oversights (e.g., "John qualified for Tier 2 two weeks ago")
• Historical tracking builds your outcomes case for funding
• Compliance reporting is exponentially harder without proper systems

Aurora's operator, Advance Pathways, will need sophisticated systems to manage 600 residents across three tiers plus extensive on-site services. So will you as you scale.

What's Next: The National Trend Toward Accountability

Aurora isn't alone. This shift is happening everywhere:

Federal Level

• HUD redirecting billions from permanent housing to transitional models
• Executive Order 14321 prioritizing recovery and self-sufficiency
• New CoC funding criteria emphasizing measurable outcomes

State Level

• Minnesota: $48 million redirect from permanent to two-year transitional programs
• British Columbia: New 20-unit drug-free transitional housing in Victoria
• California: Mounting pressure to abandon Housing First after $30B spent

Local Level

• Colorado Springs: Springs Rescue Mission's incentive-based model (Aurora's inspiration)
• San Jose: 70% of interim housing residents still housed after one year
• Multiple cities exploring tiered approaches

The Message is Clear

The era of "provide housing and hope for the best" is ending. The new paradigm is "provide housing with a path to independence and measure whether people achieve it."

If you're operating recovery housing, you're either adapting to this shift or getting left behind.

Action Steps: Starting Your Tiered Progression Journey

This Week

1. Assess your current structure

• Do you have implicit tiers already? (Better rooms for stable residents?)
• What would formalize them?
• What's your current average length of stay?

2. Review your outcome data

• What percentage of residents achieve employment?
• What percentage transition to permanent housing?
• What percentage maintain sobriety 6 months post-program?
• If you don't know these numbers, start tracking today

3. Study successful models

• Research Aurora's campus updates
• Look at Springs Rescue Mission model
• Review NARR Level guidelines for natural tier alignment

This Month

1. Design your tier structure

• Define 2-3 clear tiers
• Specify advancement criteria for each
• Map physical accommodations to tiers
• Create resident handbook explaining progression

2. Upgrade your technology

• Evaluate whether your current systems can handle tiered tracking
• Look for platforms built for recovery housing (hint: Sobriety Hub)
• Implement at minimum: tier assignment tracking and advancement alerts

3. Train your staff

• Educate on tiered model philosophy
• Practice advancement conversations with residents
• Develop celebration rituals for tier progression
• Create coaching strategies for residents who plateau

This Quarter

1. Pilot the model

• Start with new admissions
• Transition existing residents gradually
• Collect feedback from residents and staff
• Adjust criteria based on real-world results

2. Market the progression

• Update your website to explain tiered approach
• Use tier advancement in resident recruitment
• Share success stories of residents who progressed
• Highlight progression metrics in funding applications

3. Measure and iterate

• Track advancement rates
• Identify bottlenecks (What keeps people in Tier 1 too long?)
• Celebrate wins (First resident to Tier 3!)
• Refine criteria based on what actually predicts success

The Bottom Line

Aurora's $40 million experiment isn't really experimental. Cities across America are discovering what recovery housing operators have known for years: structure works, progression motivates, and accountability creates lasting change.

The tiered progression model works because it's realistic about human behavior. Most people need immediate help with no strings attached. Many people respond to incentives and visible progress. Some people need firm requirements to break through denial. A tiered model serves all three groups in the same program.

More importantly, this model aligns with where funding is going. HUD wants to see measurable progress toward self-sufficiency. States are demanding outcomes data. Donors want to know their money creates independence, not dependency.

If you operate recovery housing and aren't thinking in tiers, start now. Create progression pathways. Track advancement metrics. Celebrate when residents move up. Measure independence, not just occupancy.

The future of recovery housing doesn't look like permanent supportive housing with optional services. It looks like Aurora's campus: immediate access for everyone, increasing structure for those who engage, and real independence for those who commit.

Your residents deserve a path forward, not just a bed. Give them one.

Key Takeaways

✓ The tiered progression model creates levels of housing with increasing independence

✓ Aurora's campus demonstrates this with 3 tiers: Compassion (low-barrier), Courage (case management), Commitment (employment)

✓ Research shows structured progression improves outcomes across substance use, employment, housing stability, and recidivism

✓ You can implement tiered progression at any scale by creating clear criteria and tracking advancement

✓ Federal and state funding is shifting toward programs that measure independence, not just occupancy

✓ Track tier-specific metrics: advancement rates, time to progression, completion rates, and post-program stability

✓ Essential technology: tier assignment tracking, goal management, financial tracking by tier, outcomes reporting

Ready to implement tiered progression tracking in your recovery housing program? Sobriety Hub provides the data management tools you need to track resident advancement, measure outcomes, and demonstrate impact to funders. Schedule a demo at sobrietyhub.com.